Brexit Fallout

by Glenn N. Holliman

Comments continue to tumble in concerning the issue of the British Exit from the European Union and the tremendous political and economic upheavals that have followed. These are listed as they have arrived. Several have written twice. I offer them to you for 'reflections while reading'. - GNH 29 June 2016


The comments concerning the British Exit vote from the European Union have been many and largely on the fearful side. Here is the latest from some of our readers. I have had to edit comments due to the length of replies and to keep this blog manageable. - GNH

From a Librarian in Virginia USA....

Well said, Terry.  I fear that Britain has played right into Putin's hands.  This is the first of a series of dominoes that will weaken the West.  I have a deep sense of foreboding about this.

From an USA Judge for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania....

Too much history and too many factors to really understand goings on in the western world, but lots of gripes are being expressed--at least, for the present, through the ballot box--for the present.  Maybe the "anointed " haven't listened. 

Yeah, sad. Really.  Wait a day or two and buy some stock.

Right, the blog writer with friend Peter Smith, far right, of Bedfordshire in Swinford, England inspecting the graves of two Mitford sisters - Nancy and Unity who were on opposite sides of the political spectrum in 1939, another time of European crisis.

From a Disgruntled Englishman....

I am British and live on the continent. You are correct. The British hide - or hid - the vicious social, cultural and economic divisions that have existed there for many many years. It is, in reality, a viciously nasty place for the majority of the population to live. It became too much for me and I left.
The contrast with the continent is palpable - despite the economic difficulties here, There is much social 'solidarity', more adult behaviour in politics, and a lack of the vicious racist and xenophobic bitterness that is part of the currency of life in Britain. The damned 'battle of Britain' is lived there every waking day. It is pathetic.
The British diplomats are clever, the media is sophisticated, and maybe this blinded you to the very nasty reality.

I am ashamed of my country; I am reminded of the Germans waving eagerly at the man who spun a myth of dangers and then spun another myth of simple solutions.
This referendum was a hot, sweaty, nasty nationalistic dream-fest.
Reality will be hellish. It is tragic. But terminal for the British state, and the perspective of the world on Britain.
Beware when you next see Trump's bucolic face, and hear his childish mind.


From a Retired Educator outside of London....

Dear Glenn

I’ve not found the time to read everyone’s contributions but as a passionate European I am heartbroken at what has happened.  I do not know of a single educated person here who thought we should leave Europe.  So important a decision should not be put in the hands of the masses.  One newspaper called it “a reckless gamble by David Cameron".  Now it looks as if we will be faced with the break up of the United Kingdom.   The fact that Donald Trump has applauded Brexit surely says it all.  I am ashamed to be English.

Best regards

From our Writer in Australia....

Dear Glenn

As an antipodean (i.e, from afar and knowing little of trade agreements between countries) I still reckon that LEAVE was the way to go, but perhaps not if I had known that Scotland and Northern Ireland had the right to remain in the EU and if they do so would consequently render the UK into an FK (‘Fractured Kingdom’!).

Left, Steph's friends in her garden.

I always thought that the entire UK was voting as one island, as it were. If Scotland breaks off from the majority vote in the UK, then all the control that the LEAVE people wanted will be badly undermined.  And as for the REMAINERS claiming that the LEAVERS were basing their decision upon emotion rather than pragmatism, I suspect that all those countries who have been forced to virtually open their borders, or who have willingly opened their borders, must be financially affected adversely. 

Of course immigrants take jobs - why wouldn't they? And as for the argument that they are prepared to take those jobs that the Brits refuse to do, just tighten up the social security net. Hard decision for Government to make, but I believe that currently it is ridiculously easy for people in Britain to take advantage of huge welfare benefits, especially encouraging them to have more and more children. All this must change, or Britain will go under. 

The same applies to Australia. We must keep control of our borders. We must be allowed to decide how many and who are admitted into this country. And there should be no incentives to breed, as there was with a mad baby bonus a few years ago in Oz, thought up by a very Catholic PM who didn’t even consult with his ‘team’ over it. This little globe is now dangerously stretched to its limit, and I selfishly want my patch to stay clean and green and comfortable for many years yet, so that my great grandchildren won’t be living in a place where dog eats dog. And I’m quite sure, whether you’re Terry F or David L, whether you’re Boris or David C, whether you are Catholic or atheist or moderate Muslim, this is what you want too. It’s the ‘how’ of it that no-one can agree on.

The close outcome leaves Britain divided sharply no matter which way the vote had gone. It’s a bit like the close contest between Trump and Clinton – no matter which one makes it to the Presidency it seems that the crevasse between the two ways of thinking is irrevocably too wide and too deep for any kind of united thinking ever again.

All I can do is to superstitiously cross my fingers and toes and hope like hell that the sky stays up for a while longer.

From a Remain Voter in the English Midlands....

Dear Glenn

We are now over the initial anger, but remain in a state of disbelief that some 52% of our compatriots voted to flush down the toilet, the very idea of a united Europe, taking with them, around the U-bend, our economic future. Not one of our colleagues, friends or family voted to leave, so who in hell are all these small-minded xenophobes?

We remain devastated. Presumably the Bexit people are bricking it, because they have no plan. 

We don't want to belong to an isolated nation, and, were we 47, rather than 67, we would unhesitatingly emigrate. Currently, Scotland looks like an option, because, with 62% of Scots having voted to remain in the EU, there is no reasonable argument for not letting them secede from the vestigial UK and joining the EU. The rest of the former Union would become, we guess, Wengland, or perhaps Engwales.

Right, New Years Eve, 2015 at Stoke-on-Trent six months before the vote!

It’s a nightmare, and we hope that we shall soon wake and realise that it’s not true.

This morning, my bank refused an order for Euros. Happily we have €275 in stock. We shall be in France on Monday, so we must hope that we can get some more there (market traders aren’t keen on credit cards!)

We are adrift, off the coast of continental Europe, in a sinking dinghy, fuel running out rapidly, with no life-vests and no-one sufficiently caring to come out and rescue us - and we, for two, can’t blame them. Don’t blame us, though - we are of the 48% who voted in favour of the EU.

From an Educator in Tennessee USA....

Glenn, this is fascinating…and downright scary, now that Brexit has actually happened.

From our Leave Supporter, David Lott....

Dear Glenn,

                           

Do take a look at this comment upon this observation entitled "Five Days after the Referendum".

  

The instruction from the people to the Government to leave the EU at the referendum last week is already being treated with contempt. I have lost count of the times I've heard a young person complain over the last few days that "You've stolen my future" by voting to leave the EU.

They need only to look at Greece, Italy, Spain and many other areas of the EU to see unemployment at rates of around 40 to 50 per cent amongst the young. Some might argue that this is due to the failed euro currency, but if we'd voted 'Remain' we would also have had to adopt the Euro in the not too distant future. 

Even in countries nearer to ours in matters of economy and facilities, such as France or Germany, it is nearly one in four unable to find work and, by extension, 'a future'. Record levels of immigration mean getting a job, home, children into school, a health appointment, just moving around and so on are much more difficult.

Laws and freedoms dating back centuries, and once taken for granted by every freeborn British person, are vanishing to be replaced by 'diktats' and EU Regulations. And so the question is "What future" had we stayed in the EU?

There is a real effort within the Government, Civil Service – now politicized and all the broadcast media to undermine the will of the people. By ignoring this plebiscite they ignore the message they have been sent. It is a message that far transcends the single issue of leaving the EU. They sneer at populism which displays their arrogance and contempt, they use the same venomous language that some pen to insult us. The Remainers in the debate hectored the people, the Leavers remained positive and calm. The result; a revolution without blood.

I cannot understand these sore losers, can they not see that all we demand is to behave as a normal independent country in our own interests. Can they not see we are sick of PR and spin substituting for performance. It appears they cannot. As a result they are signalling more of the same and that simply will not do.

The vote to leave crossed Party lines and new associations and friendships formed.  I, for instance, attended a meeting addressed by a Labour Councillor and it was superb. I could work with him comfortably and our UK Independence members at the meeting agreed and mixed and worked in harmony with those of different party members of all age groups, social class, town or country, employee or business men and women.

The rumble of change is growing louder, we are sick of unfulfilled promises, failure to deal with reality, our country full to bursting with little forward planning for public services, corruption in politics and corporatism along with wars and lies.

If you will not change then we shall replace you. That is just how big this peaceful revolution will be.  

Right, the blog writer in yellow with David White, a retired RAF Group Captain, admiring the English country side of Buckinghamshire. 

From our Remain Voter, Terry Field....

The leavers asked nonsense about the funding of the healthcare system.They now retract it. The leavers said they could set up better trade deals for Britain.Not with Europe now, not with the USA now, and there are 50 race deals internationally to reconstruct and Britain has almost no expertise here. The leavers incited foreigner loathing, a series of posters that were disgraceful, and now we see Poles and others attacks in the streets and told they will be deported. I have never heard such gross bullying of reasonable alternative arguments.

The EU has major problems, but outside is worse for Britain, and the Germans and French will use the Commission as a blunt instrument to dictate terms. There will be no scenario whereby Britain saunters into the room and tell Europe what is will accept. The reverse will apply.

The lie about closing down migration has already been backtracked by the amoral little chancer Boris Johnson - why? Simple - if the UK insists as such, there will be a default out of not just the EU single market arrangements, but outside the EEA arrangements. That would be ruinous for Britain. its credit rating would collapse, and it would not be able to utter a budget.

My comments are not insults - they are objective reality, as is now being reported hourly. 

The warnings were in fact too light. The currency values and the stock values of debt exposed businesses such as banks has collapsed by up to 41%.

Goldman is warning of a mild immediate recession, but the downgrading of the credit score will hit debt refinancing of the 1.7 trillion debt progressively over the years.

The unpleasant reality is that the UK has exposed to the word its xenophobic exclusiveness.

It has suggested to a world of large powers that they must look on with baited breath as Britain breaks are to wed them in connubial trading bliss. How lunatic a hubris is that?!

The argument put forward earlier that the financial falls are the result of 'speculation' and powers who engineered advanced knowledge is cot true - why? Many hedge funds lost big time on guessing the out-turn, and the gains, by those like George Soros resulted from a simple understanding of reality, economics and market behaviour.

Yes, David correctly identified ironic social failure in Europe, and dreadful democratic deficit there also. BUT the solution is not to do what Mr Soros suggests - pull the edifice down like Samson, but to remain and force change. 

If Europe collapses to a set of small European states, it will be in spite of the powerful work now being undertaken by the US to avoid that. Shattered Europe give Russia massive potentially violent opportunities.

And as for competing with India, China, the USA, it would be game over.

The Germans will be kind to us - after 1870, 1914-18, 1939-45?!?!?!? We threaten, directly, their long range strategy.

Britain will be the subject of vituperative responses once it announces that it is leaving. For all their failures, the EU powers are massive, and they will go for the jugular, to corral the others, and as revenge for the almost continuous political cowardice in Britain, whereby the local political incompetence in Britain is covered by blaming the EU. 

As I type, Wales says it wants independence in a federal structure, Scotland's First Minister reiterates Scotland will not tolerate this exit; and they will leave,

As for new political groupings, it is truly nauseating to see the level of political prostitution taking place as the rats shift their position in order to save their incomes and tinpot status.

At present there are 490 PMs of 650 who favoured remain. They see the abyss clearly. Will they be corralled to vote through the auto-castration?

The entire civil service believes this is a lunatic move to catastrophe. Should they not act accordingly.

The referendum is advisory to government; The Commons and the government should, and may, fully look at this. There is terror at the prospect of invoking Article 50. I share their trepidation.

Who knows.

Some people will do absolutely anything for money and power.

And as for the economy, this decline to poverty will be a slow burn over decades - just as the communist decision in 1945 to nationalise the major industries resulted in progressive recapitalisation and total failure by 179 when Margaret Thatcher said to hell with the state subsidies - and they all went belly up. BUT it took 34 years. This will be the same.

I well understand David's position, respect it, disagree with it, respect and like him. But I am truly revolted by many of the creatures who have agreed to leave, and my country looks to the world to be, in my view, a really rather nasty place.

Farage said it is a triumph for decent people.  This indecent one could not disagree more.

Kind wishes to you both.

From a Remain Business Woman in Glasgow, Scotland....

Deep sadness here, could not believe what I was hearing when we heard result on Friday morning, still in deep shock, unsure what is in front of us.

We were lucky to be home before the pound dropped.  Fingers crossed for future and we hope no more referendums but can't count on that now.

Left, the sturdy stone walls of Scotland south of Glasgow.

From a Pennsylvania Barrister.....

Glenn.    Very interesting.  Note the hatred of the Establishment. I am reading Jeffrey Rosen's new book on Justice Louis Brandeis.  He was a Jeffersonian who hated bigness in the corporate world and in the political world.  The second chapter of the book is called the "Curse of Bigness."  Wouldn't it be wonderful if we all could return to Jeffersonian America or to Victorian England when things were smaller and everyone knew their place.  Oh, well.

From an Alabama Cousin....

The actions of voters in the UK, has inspired an Alabama Representative to Congress, (R) Mike Rodgers, to introduce a bill that, if enacted into law, would remove the United States from the United Nations.The fact that  Trump endorsed Brexit, even though he doesn't have a clue what it really means, should make every Brit nervous and concerned. To this American with English roots, it just seems that the real reason for the exit from the European Union has nothing to do with economics, but sadly, racism, and/or  xenophobia.

till taking stock after the referendum

Again from David Lott reflecting on the Reaction to the Leave Vote....

The Leave vote reverberations continue around the world in the first week following the UK referendum. Whilst I am surprised at the level of horror by the losers, and they are very sore indeed and I can understand this. It is, after all, the globalists first defeat after decades of growing 'successes'.But what they regard as success is not universally supported by any means. The world has become a very unstable and more dangerous place as the West, driven by the US, interferes internally in country after country. I love the US, its people, its variety and energy but their leadership is appalling. 

You were sorely injured with the 9/11 attacks and properly wished to avenge the dead and make the US and the world a safer place but you have signally failed to do so and the dead and deprived swell by millions.

Economic success for the individual has shrivelled and suffered after a disastrous recession as a result of bad judgement by the housing lenders and their enormous backers: the six great banks egged on by politicians.

Democracy itself is a shadow of its former self. There are many people for whom 'democracy' means 'what I want'. Cheating is no longer considered a bad thing, whether in football or Treasury modelling.  

Gordon Fanthom reminds us of Pitt the Even Younger in Blackadder's famous 'Dunny-on-the-Wold' by-election: "I smeared my opponent, bribed the press to be on my side, threatened to torture the electorate if we lost; I fail to see what more a decent politician could have done."

Pitt the Even Younger and his self-regarding mates are still whining after the referendum that 'old people' have 'robbed them of their future'. We should point out on this anniversary of The Somme that their great-grandparents gave their young lives so they could live in a free and (relatively) honest democracy.

In the UK  we have the startling spectacle of a 'petition' to over-rule the referendum, which has been signed by 3.5 million 'people' from more than 100 countries around the world, including Antarctica. As Freddy Vachha points out, it was being signed overnight at the steady rate of 47 names per minute. So who is behind this petition?

Democracy has indeed been badly wounded by those who support globalism. In the US Bernie Sanders appeals to those who have been left behind by the globalists and he has come close in the Democratic primaries. Donald Trump has succeeded in the GOP primaries and pulled in millions of those who formerly did not vote at all. They felt ignored by the elites, as their standard of living was diminished by the importation of cheap labour by the politicians and mighty corporations who finance many election candidates. Brexit, Sanders and Trump followers demonstrate cross party unity against globalisation.

A massive shift is taking place in western politics and it might not be too grandiose to proclaim that Brexit may have saved democracy in the nick of time. I am indeed amazed at the potential of our success to change the West for the better. A small group that included a young Nigel Farage started all this 23 years ago and our aims were limited to the UK leaving the EU. We seem to have started something much much bigger. 

From a Leave Resident of Guildford south of London....

I think there will be ups and downs before we stabilise but the stock market always has its panics, and then revives.  If people just carry on as normal, normalcy will be more likely to prevail.  

Europe has to make changes but I think the politicians may try to use us as an example to the other members to push them to remain compliant.  The immigration laws are just unsustainable.  Britain is tiny compared to the other economically sound nations.  We can't continue to add half a million people each year without suffering serious problems.   

 For most educated people who voted out, it's not a racist issue, but one of practicality.  Immigration is good as long as it's controlled.  If the amount of people allowed to move freely was proportional to the size of the country, that would be an answer.  If the countries all had equally vibrant economies, then there wouldn't be an issue.  But you don't see too many Brits wanting to move to Latvia, Bulgaria or Hungary!  Something has to change!!!

This election has had more ugly emotions expressed than any I've ever known. If the practicalities of migration had been better dealt with, we wouldn't be in this situation.  Liberal people wouldn't be attacked for being 'racist' and those who are racist, wouldn't be feeling free to be vicious and abhorrent.

No one knows what the future will be.  We don't know whether it will be bad for a long time or become good for a long time.  When we get some leadership here, then things will begin to move forward.  That's the next battle.  

I truly don't understand what's happening in the Labour Party.  Crazy timing. Jeremy Corbyn was pro-Remain and much of the Labour movement was too, so I don't get why they're pushing him out.  They claim they need better opposition to the Conservatives, based on how he performed in the Referendum, but that vote wasn't a Party-line vote.  Confused?  Yes!

Comments welcome as financial and political history continues to unfold.....GNH