Monday, December 12, 2016

Electoral College Explained

Daniel R. Schuckers is one of Pennsylvania's outstanding legal historians and a reader of this blog. He contributes herein his first article, his own writing.  With a M.A. in history from Stanford, a law degree, a former assistant state attorney general, a protonotary and now a law school professor, few have the credentials he has to examine and explain the American system of electing presidents.  He wrote this article in 2012 never dreaming in 2016, once again, the USA method of electing by States and not the majority vote, would come into play.  At this writing, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 2 1/2 million popular votes, but remains behind in the Electoral College. - GNH

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE: AN EXCELLENT BUT IMPERFECT SYSTEM

by DANIEL R. SCHUCKERS, ESQ.



This year Americans celebrate the 225th anniversary of the writing of the American Constitution. The debt that modem Americans owe to the Founders of 1787 is immense: a federal system with power distributed between the national and state governments, a tripartite system of government with checks and balances, an independent judiciary and the rule of law. Although Americans argue about the legacy of the Founders and the meaning of the Constitution (as is often evident in the judicial opinions of Justices Scalia and Breyer and as is evident in the political campaigns and debates this presidential election year), the American people still admire and even revere the work done by the Founders at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia in 1787.    



                                              Right, Dan Schuckers

As much as Americans revere the Founders and the basic principles of 1787, they must confront the reality that one of the creations of the Founders has served the Republic imperfectly.  Since the emergence in the 1850's of the two major political parties, there have been 39 presidential elections; in 36 of the elections, the Electoral College reflected the will of the American people.  In three of the elections --- 1876, 1888 and 2000 --- the Electoral College failed to reflect the will of the American people and in each case a President was sworn into office who did not receive a majority or even a plurality of the popular votes.

In 1968, the American Bar Association issued a report which stated that "the electoral college method of electing a President of the United States is archaic, undemocratic, complex, ambiguous, indirect and dangerous." These six adjectives were used to support the conclusion in the ABA report that "it seems most appropriate that the election of the nation's only two national officers be by national referendum." The ABA report reflected a proposal that was made and rejected in Philadelphia in 1787 and that continues to be made 225 years later.


ORIGINS OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Article II of the Constitution establishes the executive branch of government and the method by which the President is chosen: "Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the state may be entitled in the Congress."   Then, as noted by Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Paper No. 68 "the people of each state shall choose a number of persons as electors, who shall assemble within the state, and vote for some fit person as President. Their votes, thus given, are to be transmitted to the seat of national government, and the person who may happen to have a majority of the whole number of votes will be the President."

              Thus, electors from the states, not the people, not the Congress and not the state legislatures, choose the President.  Direct election of the President was advocated in Philadelphia by such leading delegates as James Madison of Virginia and James Wilson and Gouverneur Morris of Pennsylvania, but was twice rejected in part because of concern that the public would not know the candidates, their qualifications and their positions.  Election by Congress was also considered, but also twice rejected because of the delegates' belief that the President should be independent of Congress.  Election by the state legislatures was also rejected in Philadelphia in 1787.


James Wilson of Pennsylvania was the first to suggest an Electoral College and toward the end of the Constitutional Convention the delegates adopted the proposal.  Wilson acknowledged that the issue of how to choose the President "greatly divided the house."  Although the method by which the President is elected divided the delegates in Philadelphia, Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Paper No. 68 noted that those who favored rejection of the 1787 Constitution did not focus on the Electoral College; the Electoral College "has escaped without severe censure."  Hamilton continued: "if the manner of (choosing the President) be not perfect, it is at least excellent."


EXAMPLES OF IMPERFECTIONS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

An imperfection in Article II of the Constitution became evident in 1800 when it became clear that there was no separate provision for voting for Vice President.  In the election of 1800, the Republican electors voted for Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr with the intent of voting for Jefferson for President and Burr for Vice President.  There being no provision for voting for Vice President, the electors gave as many votes to Burr as to Jefferson thereby forcing the election into the House of Representatives.  After 35 ballots, several state Congressional delegations switched their votes thereby ensuring the election of Thomas Jefferson as President and Aaron Burr as Vice President.  This imperfection in Article II was corrected with the adoption in 1804 of the Twelfth Amendment providing for separation ballots for President and Vice President.

For critics of the Electoral College, the election of 1824 provides another example of a defect in the system.  In a four-candidate race, Andrew Jackson received a plurality of the popular vote, ie, approximately 40%, but he received only 99 electoral votes out of a total of 261.  With John Quincy Adams having received 84 electoral votes, William Crawford having received 41 electoral votes and Henry Clay having received 37 electoral votes, the Presidential election was again referred to the
House of Representatives where Henry Clay as Speaker of the House wielded considerable influence. In what Andrew Jackson called ''the corrupt bargain; Clay threw his support to Adams who won 13 of the 24 state Congressional delegations and newly-elected President Adams appointed Clay Secretary of State.

Since the birth of the Republican Party in the 1850's and the emergence of the two-party system, three Presidential (as of 2016, four) elections have resulted in the Electoral College vote being contrary to the popular vote.  In each case, great bitterness has resulted along with cries for the abolition or reform of the Electoral College.

In the election of 1876, the Democratic candidate, Samuel Tilden, won a majority of the popular vote, but the vote of the Electoral College was marked by disputes concerning certification of electors from four states. The House and the Senate could not agree on which electors from those four states should be certified. For the first and only time in American history, Congress formed a bipartisan Electoral Commission to resolve the dispute. With eight Republicans and seven Democrats on the Electoral Commission, the electoral votes of Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Oregon were awarded to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes thereby ensuring his victory by an electoral count of 185 to 184.

Similarly, in 1888, the Democratic candidate, Grover Cleveland, won the popular vote by about 100,000 votes, but Republican Benjamin Harrison was victorious in several states with small margins thereby obtaining a victory in the Electoral College by a vote of 233 to 168.

In 2000, the Democratic candidate, Albert Gore, Jr., won the popular vote by about 530,000 votes, but Republican George W. Bush was victorious in several states with small margins, particularly   in Florida after considerable litigation and a controversial decision by the United States Supreme Court. His victory in the Electoral College was by a vote of 271 to 266.


PENNSYLVANIA'S PRESENT SYSTEM OF SELECTING ELECTORS

The Constitution does not dictate to the states how the electors are to be chosen in each state. For the past century, all states except Maine and Nebraska, have utilized the "unit rule," ie, "a winner take all" system.  Maine with four electoral votes and Nebraska with five electoral votes give electoral votes to the winner of each Congressional district (two in Maine and three in Nebraska) and two electoral votes to the overall winner of the popular vote in the state.  All other states give their electoral votes to the candidate who has received the most popular votes within that state.

Electors in Pennsylvania and in 23 other states are not required to cast their votes for any specific candidate.  Although Pennsylvania has never had an elector deviate from the political party which chose the elector, other electors from other states have chosen to be "faithless electors."  If it chose to do so, the Pennsylvania Legislature could easily join 26 other states which require electors to be bound to their pledge to vote for a specific candidate.

Section 918 of the Pennsylvania Election Code provides that within 30 days after the nomination by a political party's national convention, the Presidential nominee of the party must nominate the party's candidates "for the office of presidential electors." Thus, the electors are chosen by the party's Presidential nominee.  This year, the Republican convention in Tampa, Florida ends on August 30; therefore, the 20 Republican electors must be named by September 29.  The Democratic convention in Charlotte, North Carolina ends on September 6; therefore, the 20 Democratic electors must be named by October 6.


              During the past five Presidential elections, ie, from 1992 through 2008, Pennsylvania has cast its electoral votes for the Democratic candidates.  A review of the electors during those years indicates that the party chose people to be electors who were party loyalists, particularly state and county party officials, mayors, county commissioners, state senators, state representatives and district attorneys.

After the Presidential election on November 6, the results will become known and the Secretary of the Commonwealth will certify the results.  Then, according to federal law, the 20 Republican electors (if the Republican Presidential candidate wins a majority or plurality of the popular vote in Pennsylvania) or the 20 Democratic electors (if the Democratic Presidential candidate wins a majority or plurality of the popular vote in Pennsylvania) will meet in the Capitol in Harrisburg on December 17 and cast their electoral votes.

According to Article II of the Constitution and as noted by Alexander Hamilton, the electoral votes of each jurisdiction are transmitted to Washington, D.C. During the first week of January the electoral votes are delivered to a joint session of Congress meeting in the House of Representatives.  The Vice-President of the United States is the President of the Senate and the presiding officer for purposes of conducting the official tally of the electoral votes.  When all 538 electoral votes are tallied, the Vice-President announces the results; if any Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate has received 270 electoral votes, the Vice-President declares that person or those persons to be the winners.


PROPOSED CHANGES IN PENNSYLVANIA'S METHOD OF SELECTING ELECTORS

In 2011, two proposals to change Pennsylvania's method of selecting electors were introduced in the Pennsylvania Senate.  Both proposals are, of course, state proposals and can not affect the provisions for the operation of the Electoral College in Article II of the Constitution.  Both seem to be motivated by a desire to have Pennsylvania's electoral votes be more reflective of the will of the people.  However, the people in one proposal (Senate Bill No.  1116) are the American people whereas the people in the other proposal (Senate Bill No. 1282) are the people of Pennsylvania.

Senate Bill No. 1116 was introduced by Senator Alloway of Adams County and has the title "The Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote Act." There has not been much publicity concerning this bill and it was referred to the State Government Committee on June17, 2011.

If enacted by enough states, ie states with a total of 270 electoral votes, the National Popular Vote Act would result in the direct election of the President.  The Electoral College would be preserved, but states which pass the Act (which would NOT become effective until enough states have passed the Act) would agree to cast their electoral votes for the Presidential candidate who received a majority or a plurality of the nationwide vote.  Such states would disregard the interests of their states in order to insure the election nationwide of a majority or a plurality President.


               Eight states (Vermont, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, California, Washington and Hawaii) along with the District of Columbia have passed the National Popular Vote Act for a total of 132 electoral votes....138 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to activate it.  During the past several decades, public opinion polls have indicated that a clear majority of the American people support the idea of the President being chosen by a nationwide popular vote system.

Although this proposal would eliminate the possibility of a President being elected by less than a majority or a plurality of the popular vote, critics have noted that this proposal would greatly reduce
 the role and significance of individual states. Critics have also stressed that the Founders twice rejected
 the concept of the direct election of the President in 1787. The National Popular Vote Act would also lead to the anomalous situation of a state's popular vote being for one candidate and the state's electoral votes having to go to another candidate because the other candidate received more popular votes nationwide.

Senate Bill No. 1282 was introduced by Senator Pileggi of Delaware County.  He is the majority leader in the state Senate and one of the cosponsors of the bill is Senator Scamati of Jefferson County who is the president pro tempore in the Senate.  Governor Corbett has said that he supports the bill.  In light of their sponsorship and support, Senate Bill No. 1282 received considerable publicity in the summer and fall of2011 and was the subject of a Senate State Government hearing in October 2011.

The bill allocates Pennsylvania's electoral votes according to Congressional districts.  The winner of the popular vote in each Congressional district would receive an electoral vote and the winner of the statewide popular vote would receive two electoral votes.  Such a system would more closely represent the popular will of the people of Pennsylvania.   Instead of "a winner take all" system, this proposal would probably ensure that the losing Presidential candidate received some electoral votes.

During the hearings on Senate Bill No. 1282 several criticisms were expressed.  This change in Pennsylvania law could result in one candidate winning a majority of the popular vote and yet not gaining a majority of the electoral votes.  It also could greatly reduce voter turnout particularly in Congressional districts which were for political reasons gerrymandered to overwhelmingly favor one political party.

Two rather practical considerations also became apparent. Passage of this bill could greatly reduce Pennsylvania's status as a "swing state." Such states historically receive substantial attention from the Presidential candidates in terms of campaign appearances and interest in Pennsylvania issues. Also, passage of this bill would greatly reduce the amount of money which would be spent in Pennsylvania by the candidates and the national media.

In light of the above criticisms of the two Senate bills and in light of political and editorial misgivings concerning the bills, Pennsylvania will very likely retain its "winner take all" system in 2012.

CONCLUSION

The Electoral College remains, as Alexander Hamilton eloquently described it in the Federalist Papers, "an excellent but not perfect system" for selecting the President of the United States.  An imperfection became obvious in 1800 and was quickly corrected with the l2th Amendment in 1804. The imperfections were evident in 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000 (and in 2016) when candidates who received a majority or a plurality of the popular vote were not chosen to be President. Those obvious imperfections should not obscure the fact that in the 51 Presidential elections in the 19th, 20th, and 21th centuries, the Electoral College performed its function well 47 times.

Imperfections, however, are exactly that - imperfections; no one should be surprised in 2012 if charges of corruption, fraud, illegitimacy, thievery and deceit are made if the candidate who receives a majority or a plurality of the popular vote does not receive a majority in the Electoral College. In the wake of the 2000 election and in light of the current highly-charged political atmosphere such accusations will be expected and plentiful. Also abundant will be demands that changes be made in the Electoral College.

Current efforts, however to change Pennsylvania's method of selecting its Presidential electors will likely fail and Pennsylvania will likely retain its "winner take all" system as its Presidential electors gather in Harrisburg on December 17, 2012. - Daniel R. Schuckers, Esq.

Comments?


Monday, December 5, 2016

Bitter Comment on Evangelical Christian Churches


Mike, my second cousin in Georgia USA, sent the following by an outraged Protestant pastor who like Mike and yours truly seems to be a recovering fundamentalist, no doubt acquired at emotional revival meetings in a long ago callow youth.  The words are confrontational and blunt but to my mind nail the point. Why did so many American Evangelicals, who claim to follow Jesus and his teachings and are often quick to find that 'log in one's eye' embrace a presidential candidate who is the antithesis of generosity, charity, humble living and doing under others (especially young women) with a measure of kindness? Donald Trump received an overwhelming majority of the votes of persons who describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. - Glenn N. Holliman


The Price of an Evangelical Christian Soul


They say that every man has his price; present him with an attractive enough offer and he will part with even that which he treasures most. All convictions become negotiable, every virtue is eventually up for sale.
Below, John Pavlovitz, whose provocative blog may be found on the Internet.


This year Donald Trump brought Evangelicals to a high mountain overlooking America and told them it could all be theirs—and all it would cost them is their souls. In the dizzying storm of a Presidential campaign and all that was laid out before them, this seemed like a bargain.

And so despite all their preaching about morality and all their posturing about holiness and all their sermonizing about the wickedness of the world up until that point, they willingly signed themselves over to the wild-haired, foul-mouthed, money-loving, p*ssy-grabbing Devil with the orange face:

The big-name preachers engaged in the most acrobatic of theological gymnastics to try and make Jesus consent to their endorsement and to declare him a Biblical option.

Celebrity evangelists traveled the country selling him town to town like a magical elixir for all that ailed the hurting masses.

Once sickened Christian politicians became far less vocal, much more amenable, far more complementary with each passing week.

The partisan networks manufactured a continual stream of irrational fear, misinformation, and sky-is-falling rhetoric to paint him as the coming Messiah.

Local pew sitters weaned on a heavy diet of prejudice, Apocalypse, and Nationalism convinced themselves that all his terrible indiscretions were somehow the lesser of two evils and safely within the parameters of Christlikeness by comparison.
And one by one, souls got sold.

With all their well-rehearsed, sanctimonious Scripture lip service about receiving salvation, this proved to be largely ceremonial. They may have once invited Jesus into their hearts, but when the rubber met the narrow road they evicted him and took the cash. 

Jesus was right when he said you cannot serve both God and money—he just probably thought he’d do better in the Bible Belt this year. He certainly felt he’d win North Carolina.

And as with all deals with the Devil, it feels like winning at first. In the rush of the moment you think you’ve beaten the house—until later you learn that the house always wins; that the game is set up for your failure, that the Devil never makes an even deal. One day the temporary high of the win wears off and you realize you’ve been had; that you took a sucker bet and lost everything—and by then it’s too late.

And so right now a large portion of the American Evangelical Church sits pretty, believing itself victorious; momentarily giddy at its spoils, gloating in its apparent advantage, and oblivious to the cost.

The cost, is that the Church itself, though winning this political battle has lost the greater war for its humanity and its dignity. It has been fully separated from its namesake. It is no longer synonymous with Jesus. It is no longer good news for the poor, the marginalized, the hurting, the downtrodden. It is an exclusive brothel where power lusting white Christians fornicate freely.

The Evangelical Church is no longer a brilliant beacon of God’s love in a dark place, it is simply another building upon which Donald Trump will slap his name on, exploit for a bit, and eventually abandon, leaving behind lots of people hurting who are broken and bankrupt.

Jesus once asked of a crowd listening to him preach, “What does it profit a person if they gain the world but forfeit their soul?”

This is the question we will be answering in the coming months, but one thing is for certain:

The Evangelical Church in America is now fully in the hands of the wild-haired, foul-mouthed, money-loving, p*ssy-grabbing Devil with the orange face, and along with it the reputation of the Gospel itself—and Evangelical Christians made the deal themselves. 

They have a temporary win, but have permanently sold themselves and the credibility of the Church. And those followers of Jesus who failed to sign our names in blood and kiss the Devil’s ring will have to figure out what we do now to remind the world what the love of God for all people looks like.

Hold on to your soul.

Comments Welcome:

From a retired United Methodist Minister in Alabama - 

Thanks Glenn for sending this article. I think John Pavloviz is "right on." One of he characteristics of the Evangelicals is their propensity to judge. They feel they have the right to pass judgment on anyone and everyone who does not see things their way. This "right to judge" comes from their narrow and misplaced interpretation of scripture. Another way of saying that is to say they find scripture that they feel backs up their "religious beliefs" and then spew out their judgments as if it is the "final word." It is the old adage, "my way or no way" which Trump exemplifies. Sadly, these people seem not to have experienced the Love of God and the fact that we are all one. As one of our contemporary theologians has written:"Our true well being will be found in relationship, not in isolation."  And I would add, certainly not in condemnation. These people definitely "sold their soul" as John says in part because they strongly feel they "have the final word" and can therefore justify supporting someone whose morals are "in the gutter" and who also feels he has the final say. 

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Effects of the Trump Administration on South Africa


Sid, a businessman from Capetown, South Africa has sent along this opinion piece from a business newsletter which discusses the possible influence a Trump administration may have on the economy of that nation. The USA is 5%  of the world's population, but still approximately 25% of the globe's GDP, so what happens in America reverberates around the planet, hence making this read very relevant. - Glenn N. Holliman





BEWARE OF TRUMP’S VICTORY – HARD ECONOMIC TIMES LOOM FOR SA
Donald Trump will soon be the 45th President of the United States. So far he is still threatening to implement his populist campaign promises (e.g. partially repeal Obamacare, tear up trade agreements and deport 11 million illegal immigrants) and has appointed a hard-line conservative to a senior position in the White House.
The American economy and how South Africa will fare 
The most critical issue for us is the economy. So far, it does not look good. Trump has promised the US corporate tax cuts and a massive infrastructure program. Global markets are worried about this, particularly emerging markets, like South Africa. These programs will see the US deficit increase from the current 80% of GDP to well over 100%.
US long term interest rates have sharply spiked upwards since Trump won. The well-known economist Henry Kaufman has predicted that the thirty five year bull market for low long term interest rates is over. This is because Trump’s policies threaten to revive inflation in the United States which will push up interest rates to dampen inflationary expectations. In turn, this will encourage investors to reduce their exposure to higher risk emerging market bonds, resulting in a sell-off of emerging currencies - to date the Rand has lost more than 8% to the US$.
To protect their currencies, emerging markets will raise interest rates which will reduce the potential for economic growth. This is not good news for South Africa as our economy will only grow 0.5% this year and if this is reduced in future years, we face more tax increases, lower employment and social unrest.


What about commodities?
The stimulus package will initially benefit commodities such as iron ore and copper. If the package translates into economic growth, this will help South Africa’s major commodities such as platinum. So far platinum has dropped since Trump’s election, indicating that US economic growth beyond the stimulus package may be low. Gold, our other major commodity export, has also dropped as rising interest rates dampen demand.
Protectionism

Trump has also promised to repeal free trade agreements, heralding a return to the economic nationalism of the 1930’s. Our economy is an open one and has benefited from lower tariffs, whilst growing protectionism will reduce the prospect of economic growth.
So what?  And will it actually happen?
Difficult times since the global financial crisis of 2008/9 have undermined the post Second World War economic consensus which has bought prosperity to the world. The problem with rising protectionism is that it does not bring economic prosperity but instead increases the potential for populism, which is already a rising trend globally.   

Despite this, there were similar gloomy forecasts when George Bush was elected in 2000. Bush turned out to be positive for the African continent as he launched a successful crusade to fight AIDS and encouraged more open trade with the USA. 

Remember also that power is institutionalised in the United States and Trump as President could well be prevented from introducing many of his proposed controversial initiatives.

Friday, December 2, 2016

A Concern for Turkey

My friend, Jaffar, a Jordanian-American and I have talked on occasion of issues in the Middle East.  He recently sent me this article on Turkey, an ancient nation, former empire, that suffers from bordering both Iraq and Syria, both states aflame with civil war.  Often perceived as the next nation to join the European-Union, the first located in both Europe and Asia, the increasingly autocratic government has disturbed civil libertarians and NATO nations alike. – Glenn N. Holliman


Edorgan Makes a Bid for the Military

BY MICHAEL RUBIN ON 11/30/16

Much of the reason why so many diplomats and analysts got the trajectory of Turkey so wrong for so long is that they focused on the cosmetic over the substantive.

They focused upon the debate about headscarves in schools and universities, but ignored changes to the makeup of the executive board of the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund, even though it was the latter which allowed Prime Minister (and now President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan to target his opponents’ financial holdings and business interests.

Many analysts—whether out of laziness or ideological antipathy toward those raising alarms—also dismissed concerns that Erdogan had a transformative religious agenda.

A decade ago, Daniel Fried, at the time an assistant secretary of state, insisted that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party was simply “a kind of Muslim version of a Christian Democratic Party.” He—or the State Department he was representing—simply did not want to believe Erdogan’s agenda was to unravel the republic Atatürk established and replace it with an Islamic Republic.

Regulations and appointments matter. Personnel is policy, and even minor tweaks of rules can amplify into something far greater. It is in this context that Erdogan’s appointments last week suggest the likelihood of violence is increasing.
Erdogan has already transformed Turkey into an Islamic republic in all but name. Now he appears intent on building his own Turkish equivalent of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, loyal to him and the ideology of his slow motion revolution.

Consider Article 18, published here, in the Official Gazette, which allows the Turkish military to rehire retired military personnel for regular service or as recruiters. This allows Erdogan to bring back thousands of officers fired in the late 1990s because of their ties to the Islamists.

Further, they can return without penalty since Erdogan passed a law three years ago granting retirement rights to those purged at the level they would have enjoyed had they not been fired.

A month ago, I wrote about the strange case of Gen. (ret.) Adnan Tanriverdi, the head of SADAT, a paramilitary group and Special Forces training group, whom Erdogan appointed to be his military counsel.

Tanriverdi was purged in the wake of the soft 1997 coup because of his Islamist ties, and he appears to have been bent on revenge for the past two decades. SADAT has thousands of retired military officers and Islamists working for them, and they could soon find themselves officially in the ranks of the NATO’s second largest military by manpower.

That’s bad for democracy and bad for NATO—eyewitnesses suggest SADAT was behind many of the murders on the evening of the failed July 15 coup that Erdogan subsequently blamed on followers of exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen.
But it also foreshadows coming violence in Turkey. Erdogan makes alliances of convenience before turning on former allies when they are no longer needed. He has embraced and then discarded the likes of Abdullah Gül, Ahmet Davutoglu, Kurdish leaders and Gülen.

It will happen to Devlet Bahçeli, the chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party, although he may be blind to his fate and, regardless, is more a pawn than a competitor.

The battle that looms largest now is the coming showdown between Erdogan and Dogu Perincek, a former Maoist turned ultranationalist who has backed Erdogan only so far as the Turkish president takes on their mutual enemies: Kurds, Gülenists and liberals.

By infiltrating hundreds of his followers into the military, Perincek has ensconced himself as its behind-the-scenes power broker.

Erdogan’s efforts to flood the military with SADAT veterans is meant to shift the power within the institution. It’s a game of chess for military primacy within Turkey. That Article 18 in the Official Gazette’s orders also allows the retired soldiers to serve as recruiters is significant because it means SADAT will now be enlisting and hiring soldiers and military students.

This is already causing grumbling within the current ranks of the military. Perincek’s people have no choice but to resist or concede defeat. Resistance means violence or, perhaps, another coup attempt.

Only two things are certain: First, the Turkish army will become dominated in the coming months by either SADAT or Perincek, but not by both. The former will benefit Erdogan, while the latter will likely mean the Turkish leader’s demise.
The second certainty is that whoever wins, NATO and hopes of a Western-oriented Turkey will lose.

Erdogan has killed democracy, the free press and the independence of the judiciary. Now it is Turkey’s military’s turn for ruin.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. A former Pentagon official, his major research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy.

Comments:

From a Canon of the Episcopal Church - 


Good morning, Glenn:
Your most recent articles were quite interesting and yet, at the same time, a bit frightening, especially the last sentence in the article about Turkey that Jaffar sent to you: “Erdogan has killed democracy, the free press and the independence of the judiciary. Now it is Turkey’s military’s turn for ruin.”  When I read that, I said to myself, “Is he writing about Erdogan/Turkey or Trump/America?” Just think about it. Trump is selecting/hiring all sorts of hawkish “retired” military personnel to be part of America’s future government. He hates the media of all sorts, i.e. except for Twitter. And, God knows, whom he will nominate (and, no doubt, get approved by an overwhelming GOP Congress) to SCOTUS. Am I reading something into this that is not related nor present, or, are current American diplomats and foreign policy think tanks oblivious to what is really happening as Trump and his mindless followers move idiotically in the same direction as Turkey?
Thanks for writings that make you think; keep up your good work,
Bill+

From a Former Pennsylvania Motorcycle Rider - 

Thanks again. I posted on your Blog. I wish there were a land at the end of the world where I could live in as much comfort as I have here, but alas, I don't see that as happening soon. So on and on we must go into the bleak future. 


I had been under the impression that Turkey already had the largest Standing Army in the world. Hmmm...