Europe and the U.K.

Europe is Experiencing Two Forces, which the British Press Misdescribe by Terry Field

The economy of continental Europe is recovering, with real and substantial growth happening, and with major areas of innovation showing real sparkle and success.

These are early days, and large areas of Europe are not having such a good time, but that is to be expected, as the shape of the economy changes, some areas decline, some activities remain permanently depressed to the point of collapse as other areas previously poor suddenly become wealthy as the dice of capital spending fall where they must. Thus, in Germany, the appearance of a new right wing force that has nearly 13% of the Bundestag expresses both anti-migrant fervor and dislike of Europe. 

Terry at his home in Florida, looking through his camera into the future?

A quick look at the map shows where this is happening. It is happening in the extreme east of the country bordering on Poland. Poland, and un-indebted country, with still very low wages, has sucked economic life from the German neighbouring regions as it has grown fast and furious for a decade now. The same for Germans near the old German Sudeten Czech border lands.

The British press, generally right wing, and nearly always nationality-obsessed as they always are, suggest that this new 'nationalism' will derail 'Europe', yet the real evidence of what is happening suggest the reverse.

The first thing to observe is that there is no call for national assertiveness from many of these 'marginalized' Germans. It was interesting to listen to a local German station interview Germans who had voted right-wing and who lived near the old Sudeten border. Of all borders in the world, this one sears the mind of those who have a bent for history as being similar in its banner of tragedy to that of the border between India and Pakistan. In the Sudetenland, firstly, the Slav peoples living there were expelled by the German government when it as annexed by Hitler. Then, after the collapse of the Reich, the reverse was done to Germans- and with a bloody and dreadful vengeance.

It therefore came as a surprise that these modern, poor Germans, when interviewed, said gleefully that they would like to swap and become ‘Chech Sudeten Germans’ and leave Germany proper!

Why? Because that part of Czech is doing very well thank you.

In other words, for you nationalists who are obsessed with the nation state, the real message of the political developments in Germany, now with a Chancellor unable to form a proportional representation coalition - is that the problem, not the solution - for these people - is that they are subject to a German national and federal budget. Their distress is NOT making them look to a 'greater' Germany. Many wish to become Czech!

Because they will be prosperous, or so they think. 

Of course, the border with Poland excludes such dreams, history and prejudice being what they are. But these old 'Ossie' Germans are the old, stranded folk as their children moved to Frankfurt, Wuppertal, the rich Rhineland and the southwest to prosper after the wall fell. These poor old folks living on cracked socialist dreams are no argument for the nation state at all.

Even they recognize they are simply the flotsam of history. Self-pity and morbid introspection should be, and is, is the dominant emotion there, not nationalist fervour. Nigel Farage (United Kingdom Independence Party leader) was reported to have been engaged with this political uprising. Some uprising.

All it does is destabilise the Chancellorship for a period. But the solution here is European wide intervention. These marginal areas where misery has descended require the subsidies the immobile old live by. 

Nobody can or should imagine Europe is a failed idea because of this. It would be like saying the sea is not the solution for the life of fish, after a pod of pilot whales, stranded and dead on the beach have been observed.

Labour mobility and open borders are the solution here. Subsidy is needed. All else is irrelevant. National context is a simple irrelevance for these people, but it is a massive problem for Europe.

Plainly the German political structure amplifies division and it was designed to do so. The dominance of the German state in Europe is a problem for Europe, and the political incapacity of Germany points a searchlight at the need to radically reduce the power and political dominance of the nation state in the context of Europe. If that does not happen, Europe will fracture further, and it may disintegrate entirely. Yet that will simply impoverish all the members.

Right, an adult and adolescent owl resting on a tree branch at Terry's domicile in Florida.  Wisdom is present in many cultures.  Photo by Terry, 2017.

 The truth of the failure of the idea of the all-powerful nation state in Europe is the central reality. Many may deny that, may 'rally to the colours' in ignorance and superstition, but their success will be pyrrhic. In Europe, nationalism is self-defeating. Impoverishing. Diminishing of all aspects of high-functioning human life. Polish ultra-nationalism strands poor Germans unfortunate enough to live on its border. I know of no circumstance where nationalism in Europe offers anything worthwhile, good and true.   

Brexit and a Paralyzed Chancellor

Frau Merkel, always treading on eggshells, now has crocodiles hatching under her feet. There is now no appetite at all in Germany for kindness to Britain; rather they are enraged by us. 

British politicians claim the Spanish are 'arguing Britain's corner' (and if that is not grasping at straws I do not know what is), yet they publicly deny it and call the British political class utterly deluded.

Robust European economic growth will take much of the quite small sting the continent will feel at the British leaving with no comprehensive trade deal. It will be ruinous for British trade, however.

The rise of disparate political nationalism in Austria, Germany, Poland, Slovakia. Czech, Hungary, imperil the freedom of movement of the great political regions of Europe - found in France and Germany - and that pushes them harder now to cut Britain out utterly.

Europe as a political entity is more uncertain than ever, flanked by weak, self-destructive nationalist members, and not moving to secure its social fabric as it must. 

In such a context a rabidly nationalistic Britain is more and more hated. And emotions drive policy.

Britain faces social disorder now based on nothing more than its present, known lamentable condition.

It is visibly moving out of the company of advanced humane forward-facing nations. That is palpable to all interested enough to see with clear eyes. 

I repeat what I wrote at the point nationalism tore my country into its present path. I love my country with a passion, but that love is directed at a Britain that was dying fast at the time I was being born.

Now I shudder at its future, and that of my beautiful step-children, and my exquisite step-grand-children.

On November 23, 2017, Terence Field wrote:

Today I read that the British IFS (Institute of Fiscal Studies) identifies suggests the debt profile will not recover to that of 2008 until 2060. 

I had penciled in a thirty-year period, ending about 2038, but they pencil in an additional twelve years.

Why?

Many reasons, related to extremely poor absolute and relative productivity, stubborn failure of the governments of the nation to adjust the pattern of the economy away from a 'rentier' be, and the consequent continuing need for incremental net state borrowing to allow spending 'commitments' to be met.

There is a projection of low growth of about 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 percent per annum. This is insufficient to maintain full employment in normal circumstances, but there are now no normal circumstances, thus more and more 'working' people will be paid insufficient to live, and state income subsidy will be required to increase and increase.

The world outside Britain grows well and strongly. Save for only two other economies in the entire world of economic activity, Britain exhibits persistently falling real incomes.

Poverty desperation and social dislocation is becoming the experience of a larger and larger proportion of the British people.

I could expand to describe an even grimmer picture, but frankly there seems little point. What is written here is quite sufficient.

Productivity, Camels and the Sahara Desert

I note that since the decision of the uninformed mob - in contrast to that of the 'Will of the Nation in Parliament Assembled' to exit the European political and social enterprise, inward economic investment has collapsed to a net negative-  a dis-investment. And that is simply the first reaction. No investment, and negative investment, after a few decades, makes the output resemble that of the Toureg in the Sahel. Productivity is all an economy has. Without productivity, there is no economy. It is core, fundamental, not a matter of trivial relevance.

The Brexit fantasists abused rational people as 'scaremongering' when we described the dreadful long-term consequences of this deluded nationalism. In reality, all we have seen so far is a pale imitation of what is to come. The chilling projections and current economic metrics are without the effect of real Brexit.

The immense productivity gains experienced in the advanced regions of the developed and the rapidly developing world eluded Britain. Britain is an anachronistic island - in every sense and not just the physical - of antique, rentier economy, broken class-ridden politics, society in a state of incipient violent disorder (even predicted by current serving ministers) and almost entirely bereft of the plastic, highly-educated, functionally literate population required to allow for the vital continuity that a changing, broadly creative and fully productive society vitally needs,

Brexit will add to the woes. And not to a trivial extent.

There is utter contempt for the posture and level of competence of the British government in Europe. 

The world is aghast at the political collapse there. The Dutch prime Minister stated that Britain's society, economy, politic was in a state of developing collapse. He was correct. 

We see it happening before our eyes.

There is real deep-seated re-assessment of the condition of Britain in all the chancelleries of the world. And the re-assessment is in one direction only.

What do the Brexit people imagine this will do to the continuing commitment to invest, to engage, to risk with and to apply executive thought in the direction of Britain? The answer to that is simple. They have not got a blind clue.