Thoughts in a Conflicted Europe

by Glenn N. Holliman

Regular columnist Terry Field writing from his home in Normandy, France shares his latest thoughts on Britain, Europe and the forth coming collapse of the middle class.  At the end of his disturbing assessment, he was informed of the terror attack on a near-by Roman Catholic congregation at mass. The priest was savagely murdered by ISIS supporters. - GNH

Terry Field declaims....

It is an opportune time to comment on events transpiring around the globe, and looking to try to discern meaning, and the possible direction of events.

The decision by Britain to exit the European Union is a few weeks old now. Little has happened of note, save the decline in Britain's' credit rating, the reduction in its currency's value, an slowing of investment a slowing of commercial and retail activity, and a little shuttle diplomacy by Mrs May.

The unseen activity is in the political establishment, the civil service, the holders of influence.

A sign of this can be seen in an article in a British newspaper today by the one-time Foreign secretary and author, Mr Hague. In his article he refers to the intention of the British Prime Minister to provide for the needs of the ordinary people. A recognition of the extreme inequality that has come about from the effects of globalising economics and the juxtaposition of a rich London - in effect a world city - and the rest of the de-industrialised, deskilled, and largely impoverished country.

In his French kitchen when not keyboarding thoughts

on the challenges facing western civilization, he gathers 

vegetables from his garden and garnishes them with

local herbs.  Of course, gladiolas accompany his

culinary creations.

Across Europe and the entire west, and particularly in the United States, the life chances of people have become so diverse as to make life a lottery. If you are clever, educated, in the right job, in the right place, with the right contacts, you thrive and become enriched. Without those personal attributes and advantages, you probably sink without trace into poverty, violence drugs and despair. 

It used to be a white/black divide in the US. No more. The scythe of economic fortune cuts you down or elevates you irrespective of desire, needs, dependents or human worth.

The remorseless effects of direct labour competition is felt by nearly every person - including the prosperous, since they have failing children and relatives, and they feel the same insecurity and fear for their continued stability.

This force is accelerating in power and reach. It excluded, and it alienated. But now, the alienated are finding a voice. In Britain, they found the brexit voice, in the US, they may choose the Trump voice, and in France, particularly in the light not just of the German hegemony and a cripplingly overvalued currency, but of the slaughters, they may choose the Fronte Nationale and Madame LePen.

Europe, unlike the United States, is strategically exposed. It has little energy and must import for its needs. It has Russia under Putin in the East, and a swathe of Mediterranean states taken over by versions of Islam that sees its opportunity. Militarily, Europe is weak, and the United States is now semi detached form the region. The high-functioning liberal democracy of Europe is under direct threat. France is reeling from the state of emergency and the security services are said to be exhausted keeping a lid on the threats bubbling up across the country. The atrocities are the ones who succeed. The other - so many of them - grind the security system down.

The Hague article refers to the impending removal of vast swathes of the middle class by digital expert systems. This is gathering pace, but is held back for fear of the consequences. But it cannot be any longer avoided as the commercial imperatives are overwhelming. This will add the technical middle classes to the ranks of the poor, as their blue collar workers were so consigned a generation ago.

I have long been of the view that it was not the democratic system and the universal franchise that caused the flowering of the universally encompassing industrial economy. The reverse is the case. The inclusive modern economy spawned the modern democracy. I suggest that the new, exclusive economy, the impoverishing economy will be a powerful agent to cause democratic life to wither. That is happening as the 'centre cannot hold' across the old First World. Remember that? The 'First World'. Gone now- or almost gone.

What symptoms do we now suffer from, and what can we expect?

The West is like Eastern Europe under the old Soviet system. We, as they did, try to maintain a structure and values that can only survive in isolation. In isolation from billions of cheap workers, in isolation from a violently aggressive and competitive alternative civilisation -Islam - and in isolation from the attractions of populist forces who capture the hearts of the hordes of the vulnerable, by offering radical, 'strong' direction away from the present heartache.

What can we expect for the future.

Mr Malthus has been laughed at for many decades now. His prescription for a world oversupplied with humanity is simple. 'Emiserisation'. A colourful and Dickensian word, at odds with our candy-coated smiley world of the wonders of the Great New Tomorrow.

But he is now being proven correct.

The dots are being joined up. Economists have long understood the 'technology effect' was losing its potency to keep output increases ahead of the numbers of human consumers. Now that effect is leveraged by a shift of wealth from the West to the East. That accelerates, and the resources consumed from the earth are far greater than this sole planet can continue to sustain.

Climate change, rejected by many who like to ignore science and 'elites' when it suits their fragile emotions will rip through productive capacity, food supply and resources, flood coastal areas and cities, and kill enormous numbers. we do nothing to stop this.

I trust ( but do not expect that) some actions to reduce this mortal threat will be undertaken, but the measures now required will result in great reductions in personal and national wealth in the advanced nations. SO more stress.

There are NO forces acting on the advanced nations to improve the lot of the 'average' person. Work intellect thresholds are rising and vast numbers are excluded. That will accelerate as digital expert systems raise the intellect threshold further.

Our western civilisation now stands at a crossroads. We have a set of binary choices, and they are of such moment as to merit considerable attention.

Politically, the liberal elites have lost relevance. The illiberal, ill-educated, caste-adrift, slightly-working and lightly-paid majority neither understands the values of liberal inclusive social order, nor would have any sympathy for it were they to comprehend its nature. For them, life is primal, often tribal, essentially local, economically eternally constrained and altogether pretty brutal. Many of them reflect that brutality in their natures, although many do not.

Globalisation, having created a universal, globally based plutocracy, a vast, everywhere-to-be-found proletariat of ill-or-nil-educated urbanised, ex-industrialised 'peasantry', and local, highly insecure, and much smaller 'middle classes' is faced with a decision. DO we continue to allow the political process to include the whole adult population in future-defining decisions, or do we 'invent' a new politics to effectively exclude the hordes?

Brexit raises this question in bass relief. of course the basic vote to leave the European Union is being dissected by the entire power elite, in all countries in Europe, including Britain. All parties understand the implications. The economic dislocation, rejected robustly by the 'brexiters' is increasingly fully understood by those staring down the barrel of 'Article 50' ( the 'notification to leave', for those of you blessed to be a long way away from the scene of the agony). The populists for brexit sneered at 'elites' who counselled remain.

That is as one would expect, since they appealed directly to those disconnected hordes I describe above.

The elites, however, still exist. They wish to act to stabilise what they see as a threat that, together with the murderous onslaught of Islam, and the threat from Putin's Russia, could drive the peoples of European countries into the hands of exactly the same sort of forces that ripped the continent to pieces in the 1930s and 1940s.

The common causative thread between then and now? In the 1930s, a financial collapse caused vast impoverishment, and desperation made people believe the simple powerful tribal and visceral promises of a group of thugs, 'chancers' and clever political opportunists. Now globalising forces rip buying power from the populations of the west. A 'compression of demand' is how economists describe it. Bloodless description for misery and hopelessness.

Britain chose exit, an attempted political 'putsch' (failed, thanks to the strange Mr Gove), and the adoption of a dream that the past could live again, and glory would shine around on a free-trading British wonderland. No matter that there never was 'free trade' but highly structured 'Imperial preference' ( let's not allow reality to impinge on a daydream, eh?)

It does not get it. The country does not get it. The EU is irrelevant. It is globalisation that is the force that has caused local difficulty. Combined with a lunatic desire by the elite to maintain a mirage of power, military reach, 'influence abroad' and puffed-up 'significance' and 'punching above our weight'. great if one lives in the guilded wonderland of Kensington, Chelsea, Oxford, and the like. Hell if you live in Barnsley or Middlesborough.

Britain has tried to be like a Little America. But dirt poor and without resources of almost any kind. All it has achieved is to become repulsively unequal. To get close to the scenario whereby Mr Hague's warnings are heard and averted Britain will need to become an entirely different place. It will have to become precisely like the countries of Europe it so violently appears to wish to flee from. It needs to become Denmark. Much flattened differences between incomes, socially inclusive for ALL citizens, and all decisions taken to provide a physical environment that offers safety and comfort to all citizenry. A tall order when the basis of broad-based economic prosperity is in headlong retreat.

The same applies the the entire West. All western countries have protected asset owners at the expense of the working population. There has been little attempt to protect those on the sharp end of labour un-competitiveness. The economic model of eternal high tech is lunatic if it does not also encompass low in intermediate tech to use the talents of the ordinary citizen.

Interestingly, rather than address this requirement, the dead hand of the liberal left in Europe now considers throwing away free movement of peoples, and is rumoured to be offering Britain a 7-10 year 'closed border' status to migration.

This solves nothing. The British will still lose their jobs; they will solve none of the unequal life chances. The right wing rubs its hands in delight. Poverty is what it feeds on.

The right - the populist - like Trump and Le Pen would simply become arch-protectionists. 'Protect France' she cries.  'Tax imports' he shouts. This sounds great if you happen to be stupid, or an economic illiterate, or simply venal. It is, however, no solution to the direct threat to western lives. 

Why? simple, well comprehended by the hated 'elites'. Protectionism simply causes all business caught up in it to invest NOTHING for the future. The enterprises are simply run down, and capital goes elsewhere even more quickly. Remember the thirties? Remember British 'nationalised' industries (a form of protectionism and labour hording). The Soviet Union was a gigantic State protectionism.

No, the alternative to the Winston Smith future of right -wing coercion and socio-political violence is almost too late now to be employed. It is a fragile plant when compared to the jackboot and the thug. It is a local, low, and intermediate technology economy, structured to survive despite world competition and itself dependent upon some form of economic 'coercion'. High tech certainly where possible, but as  part of the mix.

The dream of 'sovereignty', 'independence', 'self-determination' with global 'free trade' is just so much eyewash. The reality will be decades of ratcheting decline, isolation and cultural exclusion. The gung-ho brexiters dream a dream. Not a new one.

The world now is one of high degrees of inter-dependence. NOT individual isolation and cultural arrogance. 

It seems probable that the populist right wing will succeed in the United States if the Trump momentum continues and the numbers indicating his success are correct.

In France, the slaughters and the population schism between Muslim and French indigenous will likely propel LePen to the presidency next year. That will be the end of the European Union. Hoorah say the brexiters. 

Yet the crushing vice of the economic failure of Europe in the face of China, India and the rest is the real cause here. Destroy the potential for an integrated Europe, and the continent will collapse when  faced with the super powers of America and Asia. It will be over. The individual countries will become poor, politically broken, subject to demagogy and brute populism. Putin, so admired by the new right, will predate the eastern European states, and his violent lawlessness will extend at will with no possibility of American help. 

Indeed, were I in Peking, and were I to see this, I would be tempted to join forces with Russia to finally see off America and rip the resources I want and need from the old trade relationships built on western maritime commerce.

Changes happen very quickly when internal instability happens. The dreamers of brexit, the new right in Europe, the local racist and fascists who are creeping out of the shadows across the continent will become agents to offer the world to the new competitors in the east, and the old competitor in Moscow.

Brexit is a dream dreamed by the desperate. It is the hole in the dyke. Dykes give way, and then everything is washed away.

Post script -

I hear now that an eighty four year old priest has had his throat cut during Mass in a little church in Upper Normandie.

Muslims did it. Known to the police - indeed 'tagged' to control movement from prior violence.

I expect the left will abandon their pretence that Islam is acceptable as a partner to European civilisation. If that is not done by the mainstream 'liberal left' political class, then at least in France, LePen will win by a landslide.

We are now in the last chance saloon.

The difference between brexiters and myself?  They look forward to the robust solution of the right.

I look at it in trepidation and despair. - Terry Field, 26 July 2016

People Power Thoughts from Europe

by Glenn N. Holliman

One of our regular columnists, David Lott, a founding member of the United Kingdom Independent Party, offers from Europe a reflection on the last few weeks in our conflicted world. He sees a shift in power occurring in the western world. -GNH

The Last Two Weeks – Where does one start? 

by David Lott

Mass Islamic inspired murder, attempted revolution in Turkey, Donald Trump’s nomination, collapse of the Labour Party in UK along with a new Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary and the first signs of betrayal of the Brexit vote.

Are all these linked – yes of course they are. The one word that links them is migration in part due to political Islamification.

Turkey will present a massive headache to the West. Erdogan has responded to the attempted coup with suspiciously precise identification and arrest or dismissal of 60,000 military, academic, political and media personnel. He also blames the US for protecting his public enemy No. 1. The man seems to be following the Hitler route to absolute power. Perhaps he may move to genocide of the Kurds in the same mode as Hitler with the Jews. There is no doubt we have another rabid Islamic state in our midst, and the Mosques in Turkey have grown ever more powerful. What will happen now? I have no idea other than it will be bad, and a lot of Turks will head to the EU.

Events are now dictating activity rather than policy dictating events. The surge of Trump given some impetus from Brexit and the terrible events in France are presenting ordinary people, now living with increasing fear, with a massive democratic mandate, and for once they seem to be seizing the chance to influence the way in which they are represented. I deliberately avoided the word ruled as that is the perceived remit of the establishment..

This flexing of previously unused power has led to panic within the ranks of the entitled in the US, Germany, France and the Leadership of the EU itself. In the UK, however, the first signs of an Establishment fight back against Brexit are emerging with what is looking like a fudged approach to our relationship with the EU, where we should continue to pay in and continue to be subject to its authority. The peoples's genie is, however, out of the bottle.

Preparations are complete for the creation of a new political Direct Democracy Party using The UK Independence Party together with the Leave.eu campaign team and its massive social and internet media presence as its basis and quite independent of traditional media outlets. This group can reach the 17.4 million voters who voted to leave the EU just as the Labour Party collapses and there is a growing realisation amongst rank and file Tory members that they are at the point of betrayal. Maybe it will not be necessary to activate this force if the Establishment realises its precarious position. It is more likely that it will not and at the next election the face of politics in the UK will change dramatically in favour of  the people.

All over the West people power is surging, we saw it at the Republican Congress and we shall see it at the re-run of the presidential election in Austria, due to a corrupt count in favour of the Green Party candidate, who was elected. Also in September Hungary holds a referendum on the question of migration. No doubt with the sheer pace of events more tests for Establishments across Europe will emerge.

In the US you have your own staggering and vastly consequential election. It will be bitterly and cruelly fought. Glenn sent me a link to a Washington Post article that was at red hot panic stations and just as happened during our own Brexit debate, the media went for the individual rather than the policy. The EU media offensive is good at that too.

I cannot predict the final shape of things. I would like it to be a major shift of power to the people, with their representatives once again becoming their servants rather than their masters. I do know the struggle will be titanic and at the moment democratic and surely that must be healthy.

Prime Minister Harold Macmillan at the end of the 1950s said, “Events dear boy events, it is all about events.” That too was the approach taken by the Russian Commander in Chief during the retreat to Moscow in the face of Napoleon’s superior forces although he called it patience.

Who knows what new events we will face in the next months. Dramatic days indeed.

Comments anyone?

A Poem by a Grandaughter

by Glenn N. Holliman

I am supervising my grandchildren while their parents are away.  This past week has been filled with bad news, both nationally and internationally.  In response to news reports, my eight year old granddaughter wrote the following.

OUT THERE

by

Heidi 

Out there, somewhere

There are people who need us.

No homes, 

 Lives taken  away.

It is time to remember, 

The great moments, memories made.

Out there, somewhere

Time is changing.

Moments pass,

Out there people raging.

So put down your comic book 

and try to make a stand,

Because out there, somewhere, 

people need us.

No homes, 

Lives taken away.

Now it is time to remember

The great moments, memories made.

Heidi

I wrote this poem July 16, 2016.  It is actually supposed to be a song. What inspired me to write this was on the news over 200 people killed in deadly shooting. I knew something had to be done to stop it. 

My cousin was playing music on her  iPad, so I went to my room and wrote down some lyrics from my head.  When my Mom came in, I asked her if she would like to hear something I wrote.  I told her I wanted to sing it to my Dad and Grand Dad.  

Later that night I gathered everyone in the den, and sang this song. My Grand Dad suggested I share it with the world.  And that's why we are writing this!


COMMENTS:

From a Farmer in Pennsylvania - 

What a social conscience for an 8 year old.  She'll go far to save us.

From a relative in Texas whose husband, a Dallas Police Officer, was involved in the ambush and deaths of five fellow officers last week - 

She has a talent for writing just like her mother!!!! Way to go Heidi!


From a correspondent in Tennessee - 

Wow and wow!! How profound from one so young!!?


From an English couple vacationing near Nice, France - 

Very moving.  We should have eight-year old children with Teddy Bears running the world.

D&M

From a retired librarian in Virginia - 

Loved it.  Thanks for sharing.

From Glasgow, Scotland - 

This was inspiring especially at this time when so much is horrible in the world.

Lovely words from a lovely little girl.

From socially concerned Methodists in Tennessee -

...and a child shall lead us...  Your granddaughter's thoughts have made my day and hopes for the future.  God bless her.

From a genealogist in Tennessee - 

Your little Heidi is beautiful. And so is her heart. Please tell her I loved her poem. 

From a friend in Guildford, England - 

Wow!' is all that I can say.  Two more words: amazing, incredible!

From a noted barrister in Pennsylvania - 

Glenn, don't take this seriously, but she is so intelligent and cute that I find it hard to believe she is related to you.  Just kidding.  

From Heidi - 

Thank you so much for commenting on my poem.  It is one way I express my feelings - by writing.

From a retired minister and YMCA director in Alabama - 

Thanks Glenn. I will send to all my addresses. There is always hope.

Blessings, Charles

From a friend of Heidi's great aunt in Tennessee-

Oh, thank you SO much for sharing this… I tried to post a response on Glenn's blog but it did not publish – would you send my response to Heidi?  Her song brought tears to my eyes and joy to my heart! I'm sending her a BIG hug and hope she will be able to stay with me again in December! 

From a cousin in Alabama - 

Thank you for the sweet article!

From a well-read, political savvy friend in Orlando, Florida, the scene of a recent mass murder - 

I don't think your granddaughter has a future with the NRA.

From a college English professor - 

Your granddaughter's poem show both skill and a good heart.  She's a grand addition to your family tree.

From several sincere warm-hearted spiritualists -

Very cool Heidi! 

Keep writing them songs about your love for the world and our work together. That one is poetic and potent. I'm hoping that your young heart feels held as well, considering the big things it's holding so tenderly.

Brought sweet shivers to my body. 

A strong force, a beautiful being, a fiercely loving heart. No doubt you share her lineage. 

Thank you

From a caring relative in Colorado - 

These words from my 8-year-old last week  step-niece remind me of the work we need to do in this world, and the responsibility we have for the care and needs and gifts this incredible new generation, being born to carry us through these times....

David Lott, Further Thoughts

by Glenn N. Holliman

David Lott, no stranger to these pages, provides some thoughts this morning on the reaction of the British political establishment to the recent vote to exit the European Union. He further argues that the Chilcot Report, a damning indictment just issued by the British government investigating the initiating of the 2003 Iraq War, proves the conflict was fostered on the 'little people' by this 'establishment'.  Interestingly David has a provocative take  (certain to cause a difficult moment for thoughtful Americans) on Putin's actions in the Crimea that compares such to U.S. actions in the Middle East. - GNH

No dust settling yet

by David Lott, Englishman

The woes of the political establishment grow by the day not just in the UK but in the West as a whole. The instincts of the backbone of Britain, whose triumph at Brexit are faced with the same tired out of date figures in politics, business and media, doing all they can to delay the activation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to kick start the process for to leave the EU. 

The dirty tricks department of the Murdoch media are doing what they can to undermine the Leave Candidate for the Conservative Party leadership as she wishes to activate the article as soon as possible. The mass establishment has joined in the back stabbing and viciousness.

Their problem is that they STILL do not understand that propaganda, PR and spin have lost their ability sway the minds of the ‘little’ people who are described as ‘uneducated’, but have the sense to know when they are being conned. Because of the refusal to face this fact, they continue to digging their own graves; they will destroy themselves with self deception.

David Lott, retired RAF and commercial airline pilot, and founding member of the United Kingdom Independent Party,  sharing thoughts on European events.

The Chilcot report upon the decision to enforce regime change in Iraq has revealed a web of incompetence, spin and lies in the run up to the war, during the war and the aftermath. Politicians, Civil Servants and the military are castigated and the families of the British forces casualties are considering civil action against Tony Blair. Once again the Establishment suffers a grievous blow and reputations are shot to pieces.

Now we have President Obama lecturing Europe upon the dangers posed by President Putin to the West and Europe in particular. Many people here in Europe are not buying this, with the Netherlands having had a referendum opposing visa free travel for Ukrainians – once more the ‘little’ people speak.

Of what does Putin’s aggression consist? Opposition to the Iraq and Libyan fiascos coupled with the defence of Assad’s Government? A defence that recognises that only Assad’s people have the knowledge and ability to run a post war system with efficiency.

For how many changes of regime has the US been responsible compared with Russia? I can think of five recently and many in years past. It is credible that the failed Arab spring was strongly financed by the US amongst others. 

We do know for sure that the US provided opposition groups in the Ukraine with $5Bn before the uprising to overthrow a legal government that the people could have kicked out the following year at the next planned general election. How can Obama not know the Crimea was vital to Russia with its only ice free port for their Navy? Putin strategically would never allow that to happen. Was the Russian Bear provoked deliberately? It seems there is one law for Kosovo and another for the Crimea.

Why do I tack such things to a note about the people versus the Establishment? It because the people, once again those of us held in contempt by our arrogant rulers, can work all this out for themselves so you find growing opposition to US policies in the field of regime change and they link it with pictures of those fleeing the Middle East and Africa. Such links are valid and these events touch our lives in a detrimental way. Terrorism and divisions in society spring to mind.

Glenn asked me once what advice I would give my grandchildren and I replied, “question everything”. There is more and more of that going on even as I write this. 

Comments welcome as always.....

   

A Worst Case Sernerio?

by Glenn N. Holliman

The words over the referendum to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union continue.  This is an issue that will consume the U.K. for years to come.  Terry Field, a London School of Economics graduate and retired successful businessman on two continents, continues to mull over the result over this amazing event in British history.  His analysis is troubling and deeply pessimistic.  Whether Remain or Leave, one hopes for the sake of the British people, that the future that Terry describes never occurs.  

England has become Another Thing- Terry Field

The deed appears to have been done.

The nearly 52% compared to 48% vote to 'leave the EU' is done.

All potential leaders of the Tory Party have said that the will of the people to leave the EU will be done.

I have seen nothing similar that has propelled people in Britain into paroxysms of joy or horror, depending upon the individual preferences, as this has done.

Now there is a loathing of the political class, that the news channels today describe as almost at the point of insurrection. I am surprised violent insurrection has not already happened in Britain, concerning a number of matters, not only brexit.

The British will be governed by a newly led Tory Party in a few weeks, a couple of months at the most.

The front runner, Mrs May, says that deportation of European migrants will not be 'ruled out'.

The framework of government has now completely changed. The prior expectation to move to a balanced budget and a relief from austerity is now deferred, in reality for decades. Maybe for the rest of my life. The social and cultural framework of the country will be changed by these economic adjustments, as well as a rolling experience of cultural isolation from a continent now thoroughly rejected.

There is much discussion concerning who will be best to lead the 'negotiations' with the EU.  I have to say that this seems a touch humorous. The 27 have discussed this, and there is an opening statement issued by the major powers, Italy France and Germany, as well as the Commission of the European Union. 

That statement is in two parts. Firstly they state that there will be no offer of access to the single market without acceptance of the four freedoms - including the right of free movement.(now stated to the Swiss as well). Secondly no official at any level will engage in negotiations with Britain until that country has triggered Article 50 - the declaration of leaving the union.

The EU is completely in the driving seat here.  It holds all the cards.

Britain then becomes a supplicant, and the offer structure is entirely made by the 27. And it should be stressed ALL the 27. Any one can veto any softening in the terms. And many will do so.

There is febrile activity by the right in Europe, in Austria where the presidential election is to be rerun, and France and Holland, where there is pressure from the right for referenda on exit.

This may happen, in which all is up in the air, but I do not think it will happen. (For why, I will write another note).

The impression Britain has given to Europe is of a country that loathes the people who are its neighbours, wishes to insulate from them, dislikes the cultural variety that is Europe, and is happy to show violence, intimidation, hate and oppression to large numbers of Europeans living in Britain.

That response is happening across the country, as I write. It is my view that this new image of Britain will run and run in the mind's eye of the world. And it should.

I see a Britain full of arrogant superiority, dreams of the past, obsession with a distorted view of history that commences in the year 1940, and which gives an almost lunatic impression of the potential to 'rejoin the world' as if Victoria was on the throne, and all were supplicants to the British power and will.

This rather nasty xenophobic sweat has developed in Britain over the last few decades. Why? Simple. The only way Britain can deal with the immense failure its society has become when compared to both its past, and the best of the rest of the world.

It is hard to describe the depth of governmental incompetence in Britain since 1945. The results are there for all to see; and the more the reality is stark, the more ill-tempered denial becomes the currency of choice there.

The present condition can be compared to the 'phoney war' in 1940. There has been economic perturbation, and there has been crisis stress experienced but that is all unimportant. The real misery is yet to come, and will become cumulative in effect.

The British economy is burdened with unsupportable debt - both state and private. Why unsupportable? because the interest on the State-issued debt is capitalised, and compounded with interest subsequently.

So what has happened this week that makes the ratchet of impoverishment begin to turn and bite? It is  the loss of triple A credit rating. That will cause the increase in costs of debt finance and that will be progressively felt in the next three decades. Look at UK bond issuance, and shudder.

Terry tends his garden, collecting vegetables and his thoughts.

As for the City, the banks will migrate to Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt those activities that require 'passporting' freedoms. This will extend to many other associated activities. Remember that the German stock exchange is now purchasing the London stock exchange, and look today at the actions in France and other states to help the process of moving functions out of London.

There is no possibility that any other sector can make up for this loss of wealth and activity.

The biggest single issue for British ministers will be the acceptance or otherwise of the four freedoms. This will be non-negotiable by an EU that is now quite revolted by British social behaviour displayed over the last fortnight.

Rejection of the four freedoms will rule out access to the Single Market. Furthermore, to choose the 'second grade' market access - the European Economic Area - also requires acceptance of the free movement of peoples.

Exclusion of EEA status leaves only world trade rules. To accept WTO rules would be utterly ruinous. Why? Firstly, other suppliers will take natural and price precedence. Secondly, there would be immense emotional rejection for British goods in Europe. That area takes 48% of goods from the UK. The EU ships less than 2.4% of its output to the UK. Brexiters say the trade deficit means Europe has more to lose; this is childish. They can bury British industrial supply, and the competitor suppliers within Europe itself can easily replace this lost supply.

Non-tarif barriers against financial services and traded goods will be aggressive developed by Europe if it becomes an antagonised competitor with Britain, and not a partner and co-developer.

Britain will be unable to keep up with the avalanche of EU integrationist legislation without which Britain will simply be looked at as a third nation like Argentina, and treated accordingly.

There will be very many corporations who either relocate to Europe, or shift investment accordingly. The City ruthlessly invests where the best yield can be made, and that will, less and less, be considered to be Britain.

All this adds up to absolute impoverishment, and as the EU integrates its fiscal economies and burden shares more via the ECB, it will begin to succeed more and more.

As Britain is seen to fail at the same time.

Of course the die-hard leavers are so twisted that many will glory in the impoverished isolation. Some have started to say so even yesterday!

There is another current flowing here, not discussed, but it will emerge into public consciousness over the coming years. The old dream of the Shire Tory, and now also of the ill-educated racially and culturally threatened urban peasant, of a low-tech, slow-moving local world, untroubled by the frenetic competitive forces found in Europe, the US and elsewhere, is wanted and dreamed of.

The shire Tory loathes the educated middle class. This helps him get rid of a lot of them - or so he hopes.

The Nexus of New Labour and international capitalism is rejected here, and its acceptance of cultural plasticity is vehemently rejected. These brexit urban peasantry folk do not care for prosperity, since they cannot achieve it for themselves. They wish not to be seen as, and feel failures. 

Isolation allows them to feel more content. Or so they imagine.

This is reflected in the voting geography. London is full of clever, quite asset-rich, globally connected people. The country is empty of them, in the main.

In Scotland, there is no Shire Tory tradition, and a fierce rejection of social deference - because of the bitter experience of its reality suffered over many decades.

London and Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain; the green desert to leave.

The result will be bitter for the young. They will be cut off from the life of working and living in any of the 27 European states. There is not the understanding that, in contrast to the 1960s, when all countries in the old 'first world' were quite porous to travel within , settling and assimilating, now the barriers are getting to be a thousand miles high.

Now, with brexit, exclusion will become total if the Fourth Freedom is rejected by the incoming Prime Minister. And it may well be. Then, there will be nowhere for a young British person to go; the bars to entry will be very effective at excluding, and in effect imprisoning.

As to science and culture; it will be a catastrophe. Now, the EU directs massive resources to these areas. That will stop, and in a country with a permanently declining currency, gigantic current account deficit, reduced GDP, greatly reduced tax-take, reduced overall capital investment, even lower labour productivity (if that is possible) there will be no funds from the centre to replace those from the EU. The membership fee saved from the EU will be peanuts compared to the remorseless decline after brexit.

The pharmaceutical research industry is passported; when that finishes, it will decamp to Europe, That is being planned already. The only world class industry the British have save finance. 40, 000 high skill jobs in pharma research will in all probability migrate over time. EU membership is an absolute condition to UK location.

The brexiters claim the fishing industry will be 'recovered'. A silly argument, since the bulk of fish is shipped to continental packing plants. That will not change. We cannot send a gunboat to stop the Europeans from canning and processing fish.

Industrial final assembly is what the automobile industry does. This will begin the slow strangulation of UK output. This will be achieved in the following way:

The Strangulation:

1 Major sub-componentry will be diverted to continental plants.

2 Continental East European plants will be ramped up or newly constructed, that deal in activity currently undertaken in Britain, or due so to be.

3 Predatory non-price tarrifs will be erected by recipient final assembly plants in Europe

4 Price uncertainty will cause a shift to within-EU-Euro plants at the expense of UK sterling denominated plants. IT is not just the level of sterling that matters, it is its unpredictability that will push this trend.

5 The German 'centre-of-gravity' effect will become unconstrained, as it has been, in the name of European solidarity and integration.

The aviation industry. Bristol no longer owns the wing technology. That was sold to German companies. There will be a switch of wing manufacture from Bristol to the continent. This is already being publicly discussed.

In industry after industry, a leaching away will be the experience.

Relations with India Australia and New Zealand will not stop this; the trade deficit will balloon. The loss in currency value will give no export boost. The lack of industrial muscle means that there is little the world wants. A sad reality. But true.

Most Brexit people give the impression of knowing nothing of finance and economics; indeed many actively glory in this, and only care about 'getting their country back'.

For others, it is a horror on many levels.

I consider the mask Britain has shown to the world has permanently slipped. The real Britain, a sort of Portrait of Dorian Grey, will greatly affect its standing, credit-worthiness, acceptability, and prospects.

For me the worst aspects have been the lies of the Brexit political group, the racism, the foul treatment of minorities - which continues, the abuse of little French children going to school, the violence inflicted on defenceless and now very scared 'foreigners', capped off with Farage's stinking treatment of the European Parliament, sneering his contempt at them, before pitching for trade because 'they would not 'cut their noses off to spite their faces'.

They laughed at him again, and were offended by his blend of arrogance and absurdity.

They will not forget that. They will smash the UK if they can, partly out of pique, partly to discourage the other countries from thinking they can leave and benefit.

And Russia in all this?

If Europe breaks into components again, it will be the regional hegemon. DO not expect the United States to act to protect under the fifth article of the NATO treaty, for a continent at war with itself.

War with Russia may or may not be probable; in fact nobody can be certain. But that Russia looks to recover the Baltic States, and the whole of the Ukraine is certain. It covets Finland. It covets large lumps of present-day Poland.

I can imagine a circumstance after the collapse and fragmentation of Europe after the local fascists have whipped the people into mutual isolation whereby Russia's rapid and radical use of its now immensely capable regional forces could achieve much of this. And the US would do little to reverse or check the situation.

Brexit, and the rest who could follow, will smash European competitiveness, and may result in a regional war and strategic failure.

That is why I regret this new insanity, based on the same tatty dreams all European nationalism has relied upon.  I feel like a social democrat must have felt in 1930s Germany. A mix of sadness, insecurity, disgust at my country and fear for the future.

Terry Field